Why Stephen Harper Might Not Step Down This Fall

I saw an interesting post on the Canada Subreddit saying "Why Stephen Harper May Step Down This Fall." This jist of the article, from Steve Paikin's blog, is that Stephen Harper may decide to step down in the Fall while he's at the height of his power, and so control his legacy and succession. like other politicians like Jean Chretien and Dalton McGuinty have in the past.


The problem is that this question is dangerously close to a hypothetical question. These questions can be dismissed by a simple 'so what?' If it hasn't actually happened, it's irrelevant. Jean Chretien is supposed to have said, in response to hypothetical questions, "Well, if my grandmother had wheels, she'd be a bus." It's similar with "may." He might step down. He certainly could step down if he decided to.  But will he, given how things are going right now for him and his party?  I don't think it's likely.


Why should Stephen Harper, who has lead and guided the Conservative Party from its days as unsteady coalition of the Reform and Progressive Conservative Parties to the majority government status want to step down now? He's certainly at the height of his power as a Prime Minister, and stepping down two years before an election would mean less time to put through his plans. There's also a good political reason against him stepping down: he's proven an effective leader to the conservatives, one who can keep control of the party, and get votes from the public. Why would he jeopardize this? There is no clear successor if he steps down now, and there certainly is no clear public favourite from among his cabinet.

I am putting that last point mildly.  

The Paiken article says that every good leader has their eye on the clock. Well, that's true. But why now? Paiken does say that this is meant as a theoretical case, and so doesn't really give any evidence why this will happen. It does sort of raise the question: What is the Tories plan for when Stephen Harper actually steps down? Do they have a plan? Who's set to take over?

With two years left on a majority government, I'm going to guess that it's not a pressing question for them.